Prediction Game
What Breaks First?
Five missions, six systems. You predict which one gives out first. Then the model reveals the answer. Built on the same dynamics described in The Cascade Effect.
How This Works
Each scenario uses real consumable loads and timelines from MARS-500, HI-SEAS, and Antarctic overwinter studies.
Physical Systems
Food, air, and water scale linearly with headcount. Recycling rates, storage mass, and resupply windows set the hard limits.
Psychology
Group dynamics follow documented patterns. Cabin fever, factions, and authority conflicts show up on predictable timelines, and those timelines get shorter as crews get bigger.
How They Feed Each Other
Systems never fail alone. When morale drops, people skip exercise and waste water. When supplies get tight, arguments get worse. The first failure usually drags the second one down with it. Watch it happen in the cascade simulator.